Much like a few of today’s losers, we’re turning our sights toward 2016 in most instances as most leagues have folded worse than a Drew Brees home game by now. If you’re still at it in Week 17, there are a few tangible nuggets included as well but much of today’s discussion focuses on the season that was, and the year that is to come.
With hopes that you’ve enjoyed the campaign with us (and stay tuned for some solid season wrap/in review content) here are a few notes from Sunday’s action to help you turn the page on 2014:
NFL Week 16 Review
Odell Beckham Jr. found the endzone short in the first quarter, and then took the Rams over the top… just par for the course for the rookie phenom (Photo: Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images North America).
- Odell Beckham Jr. did it on all routes this week… again. His 80 yard touchdown was a thing of beauty, running miles behind the St. Louis secondary QB Eli Manning had to heavy everything he had into the throw for fear of underthrowing his speedy WR. Beckham Jr. missed the first four games of the season and is still the best Giants’ rookie WR in history. I was off the mark on my assessment of his 2014 fantasy value. You can be sure I won’t be in 2015… While Victor Cruz‘s return may complicate matters he is an unquestioned top-tier WR1 next season, possibly the first WR you’ll want to draft (though I’ll make a compelling case for Antonio Brown further down). He’s already fantasy’s #2 WR since his Week 5 activation, and he’s done this:
Odell Beckham Jr. sets Giants rookie record for receptions, breaking the mark of 74 set by Jeremy Shockey in 2002
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 21, 2014
Odell Beckham’s 79 receptions through his first 11 career @NFL games are the most in NFL history. #NYGvsSTL
— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) December 22, 2014
Further, Beckham sits atop an impressive rookie class:
Odell Beckham and Mike Evans each have 11 TD catches. This is the first time in @NFL history two rookie WRs have done so in same season. — Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) December 22, 2014
And just so you don’t think I’m alone and crazy on Beckham as your #1 WR:
Brandon Funston and I believe Odell Beckham is a strong candidate to be the No. 1 WR off the board in ’15. Two more TDs today. Unstoppable.
— Brad Evans (@YahooNoise) December 21, 2014
- The Texans rolled up 25 points on Baltimore and while they struggled on the opponent’s side of the field, they didn’t really have any issues moving the ball on the day. This team is going to be dangerous if they can find an answer at the QB position next year. Ryan Mallett thinks it’s him. It’s not Case Keenum, despite a strong day. Arian Foster ran the ball 25 times to pace the Houston offense, giving him 20+ in every game but three that he has played this season. Looking into 2016, he’ll likely remain a heavy part of the Texans’ offense but you’d expect the system to evolve slightly away from the run if they can find someone they trust to distribute the ball from the QB position.
- Joe Flacco was awful (21/50, 195, 3 picks… and a much worse stat-line before a late rally) but he’s enjoying his best statistical season so from a fantasy football perspective we won’t spend much time worrying about it. You know what you’ve got here. From a real-world perspective, the performance is no doubt troubling to the Ravens given the magnitude of the game (and the magnitude of his contract).
- Indianapolis came out flatter in a big road game than you could imagine. The #2 seed was never a realistic scenario but it was still in play and the Colts were listless. That extends to QB Andrew Luck who thoroughly disappointed before ceding to Matt Hasselbeck midway through the 3rd. His poor day led to a nothing outing from Donte Moncrief, supporting the ‘stick with your studs’ notion and spurning anyone who went with the upside rookie today. TY Hilton will be back on the field next week, so Moncrief isn’t relevant for daily gamers the rest of the way but I wouldn’t read too much into today’s poor outing. He wasn’t used because the offense never really found its rhythm and the team started looking elsewhere.
- Tony Romo was unreal this week. His 18/20 passing line in one of the biggest games of his career should be enough to quell any critics who espouse his supposed December choker label. Of course, if Dallas doesn’t make a run in the NFC (a tall order) the naysayers will be out in full force, but, I’ll remember this as an example of a game where the QB put the team on his shoulders in which many expected Dallas to falter. You get the feeling that if the gameflow needed it, Romo and Dez Bryant could have had their way with the Indy secondary. Bryant had an early TD called back in addition to his first half score. Dallas is more or less locked in as the number three seed despite a potential 12-4 record (Arizona and Seattle would both have to lose to change that), and if you’re paying any attention to fantasy next weekend I’d stay away from DeMarco Murray (22-58-TD in a commendable post-surgery performance) given that the team may shut him down early if he even suits up.
- Latavius Murray (23-86, 3-22) and Tre Mason (13-76-TD, 1-7) gave us a glimpse of a couple of solid second round fantasy picks next season. Game flow dictated a less than spectacular day from Mason with the Rams trailing from the opening snap and Murray’s overall numbers won’t wow anyone but both rookies exhibited great speed over the last 1/4-1/3 of the football season and project as solid RB1/2s next year. Oakland has enough issues that they won’t be drafting Murray’s heir apparent, and he certainly showed an ability to handle 20 touches a game, while Mason is a talented runner who produced in all context’s this season as opposed to Zac Stacy who ran well i the middle but was never a true three down back and should thus hold the job full time in 2015. Keeper league owners will be pleased with next year’s returns.
- Derek Carr is set to complete a 3300 yard, 22ish TD, 9+ TD:INT ratio season with wins in three of five games. Of all the sophomore QBs, he may be the best positioned to make the fantasy leap in year two.
- Jonathan Stewart really got it going in the second half, with a 30 yard gain and a nine yard receiving touchdown among other chunk plays. Fellow RB DeAngelo Williams is under contract for 2015 but is a strong candidate to be cut with a $1.85M base salary and a 2013 signing bonus of $4M. Williams isn’t Stewart’s only impediment, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy for any lengthy stretch throughout his career, but with three straight games of 20+ carries and 350 yards rushing between them the prospect of Stewart controlling the backfield is an intriguing one. Keep an eye on where Carolina goes in the offseason.
- While Joique Bell came off the bench to produce a solid fantasy day, this is the type of game owners have to be wary of at this time of year. Yes, the Lions are still playing for the division but it seemed early that they’d hoped to rest Bell in advance of a date with Green Bay given that both Reggie Bush and George Winn were getting carries before Bell entered in the 2nd quarter. Credit Bush for showing vintage form, setting up his own 13 yard score with a 21 yard reception but these are the types of games that owners have to be wary of this time of year. Particularly heading into Week 17 there will be a number of scenarios in which you’ll have to significantly adjust player values based on the meaning of the game. For example, you won’t find me starting a single Patriot regular if Denver falters on Monday Night against Cincinnati.
- You can’t expect the Jets to bring the same intensity to their Week 17 date with Miami, but, after watching this defense harass Tom Brady to the tune of four sacks, numerous pressures and 5.2 YPA (with a long completion of 14 yards) I’ll be steering clear of all Dolphins shares in Week 17. It felt like the pass rush got there every single play and it caused obvious issues for Brady.
- Alex Smith completed 69% of his passes for 311 yards and no turnovers, but produced no touchdowns. Maddeningly, the team put the ball in the air 45 times vs. just nine Jamaal Charles carries (two for Knile Davis) despite trailing just 10-6 at half time. A year after I lauded Andy Reid for using his feature back in all situations, this situation has been maddeningly common. Despite KC’s poor WR corps that hasn’t produced a single TD all year, Charles has had 10 or fewer carries in five of 14 games, including four straight outings with 12 or fewer to close the year. Moving into 2015, Charles remains an RB1 play but with another year of tread on the tires (he turns 28 this week) and 1500 career touches under his belt the workload may trend down again.
- Antonio Brown has now gone two straight seasons (assuming positive returns in Week 17) with five or more receptions in every game. That’s awesome. As a big proponent of consistency/floor with your early round picks I could easily advocate for Brown as the top fantasy WR next season.
- Drew Brees will finish the season as a top-5 fantasy QB, but today’s performance was dismal for both his fantasy owners and his football team and has been all too common in 2014. Again, he’s averaging 311 YPG and has a 100+ QB rating so I can only slam him so hard but his up and down play (including today’s three turnover, one touchdown outing) has been frustrating for owners to endure. Worse yet, it has been unpredictable. Generally, Brees has been good to go at home throughout his career with road matchups warranting some consideration as to his potential output. This year, the home games have been a mess. Brees has five games with just a single TD pass and three games with multiple picks. None of those numbers are damning, but they certainly aren’t elite.
- Steven Jackson‘s injury took what I projected to be a big day off the table against the Saints’ run D but New Orleans obliged by allowing an 84 total yard TD performance to Devonta Freeman. Freeman still only netted eight touches (behind 12 for Jacquizz Rodgers). Jackson is under contract next year and the word at the outset of 2014 that Freeman was more of a complimentary back, but he’ll certainly be due for an uptick in touches and this week showed his ability to be productive in the right context. If it weren’t the motley combo of Doug Martin and Charles Sims next week I’d be excited about New Orleans’ opponent in DFS. In fact, I’ll still likely find a way to feature Martin in a lineup.
- Teddy Bridgewater may make me feel foolish about my Derek Carr proclamation from above. Turnovers have been an issue all year – he’s thrown a pick in every game but five, but with multiple TDs in four of five and two 300+ yard games during that span he has really found his stride over the last month. In Charles Johnson and Jarius Wright the team boasts young talent at the WR position, particularly if Cordarrelle Patterson (1/1/18 and a bust of the year award nom) can figure it out heading into his third year.
- The Dolphins gave Lamar Miller just his second 20+ touch game and he responded with a 150 total yard outing and found the endzone. With all that said, the team seems to like him better as a 13-16 and their offseason moves will go a long way to determining his 2015 value (the rarely seen 2014 addition Knowshon Moreno was on a one year deal).
- The offensive line takes plenty of blame, but that Charles Sims has now produced two games with negative rushing yardage (4–1 this week) and a third in single digits doesn’t bode well for his shot at becoming an every down back in 2015. 2015 is the last year of Doug Martin‘s rookie deal.
The post NFL Week 16 Review: An eye toward Week 17; 2015 season appeared first on Fantasy Sports Locker Room.
